Leaders Opinion

The role of Data and AI in redefining our approach to supply chain resilience

March 25, 2026 9 min read
Somnath Majumdar
Somnath Majumdar
Infosys, Associate Vice President

Supply Chain resilience – This is so relevant in today’s world since we hit the Covid19 pandemic, and post that, multiple supply disruptions have rocked the world, including the latest geopolitical disturbances we are seeing in the Middle East. Supply Chains today are facing too many supply-side disruptions that have a very severe impact on their ability to meet customer demands. 

Today, most organisations are unable to manage these disruptions due to a lack of availability of real-time data or data that can be used to simulate such situations using what-if scenarios for modelling.

Event-based supply chain modelling is the key here, where we simulate based on various parameters how to bring in resilience in the supply chain. AI will help us come up with possible options for minimizing/eliminating supply disruptions. AI can help predict which suppliers in the upstream are more vulnerable to supply disruptions. AI also helps with what-if scenario modelling in such cases to help be better prepared. Today, data is captured within the enterprise and across the value chain with respect to the supply chain. We also have data available for such external events as well as any back swan events that are rare but at the same time cause massive disruptions in the supply chain.

Volatility has outpaced traditional, ERP‑centric supply chain models. Built for predictability and internal efficiency, SCM systems excel at recording what has happened—but fall short in sensing emerging risks, adapting to rapid change, and orchestrating timely responses across increasingly complex supply networks.

With AI today organizations can gather data from all the above sources and be well prepared to demonstrate high degree of supply chain resilience.

How AI is helping drive supply chain resilience

One of the most profound impacts of AI lies in early disruption sensing. Conventional supply chain monitoring relies on internal transactional data and predefined thresholds, which limits detection to known risks and late-stage signals. AI expands the sensing perimeter far beyond ERP systems by continuously scanning external data sources such as weather systems, shipping movements, port congestion indicators, geopolitical news, supplier financial health signals, social media trends, and IoT-enabled logistics data. Rather than waiting for explicit threshold breaches, AI identifies anomalies and weak signals—subtle pattern deviations that indicate emerging disruption long before they manifest operationally. This capability fundamentally changes the response window. Disruptions that previously surfaced only after material impact can now be detected weeks in advance, giving organizations critical time to activate alternate suppliers, reroute logistics, or rebalance demand and supply. For example, AI models can predict supplier default risk based on financial deterioration patterns before deliveries are missed or detect demand distortion early through promotional signals and market sentiment shifts.

Forecasting, another cornerstone of supply chain planning, is also transformed by AI. Traditional forecasting approaches produce a single point forecast, implicitly assuming stability and continuity. While adequate in predictable environments, such models fail almost immediately under volatility, as witnessed during pandemics, wars, and inflationary cycles. AI replaces point forecasts with probabilistic forecasting, expressing demand and supply as ranges with confidence bands rather than single numbers. These models generate multiple scenarios and continuously learn from volatility patterns rather than treating disruptions as exceptions. The result is a shift in planning philosophy—from pursuing forecast accuracy to managing uncertainty. This approach reduces the bullwhip effect across supply networks, enables smarter capacity buffers, and supports decision-making that is resilient under multiple future states rather than optimized for one assumed outcome.

Visibility across supply networks has historically stopped at Tier‑1 suppliers, leaving organizations blind to deeper dependencies. AI enables multi-tier supply risk transparency by mapping Tier‑2 and Tier‑3 suppliers and identifying shared vulnerabilities across the network. These include common ports, logistics hubs, countries, raw material sources, or manufacturing facilities that create hidden concentration risks. AI continuously recalculates risk exposure as conditions evolve, ensuring that visibility is not static but adaptive. This deeper insight prevents “surprise” disruptions, such as simultaneous failures across multiple Tier‑1 suppliers that trace back to a single Tier‑3 silicon fabrication plant or a constrained logistics corridor. By exposing these structural dependencies, organizations can proactively diversify sourcing, pre-position inventory, or redesign network flows.

Inventory management, traditionally focused on cost minimization, becomes a strategic resilience lever when augmented with AI. Static safety stock policies, often reviewed infrequently, fail to reflect dynamic risk conditions. AI introduces dynamic inventory optimization, where safety stock is continuously adjusted by node, time horizon, and risk profile. Inventory buffers are segmented based on disruption probability and impact, and time-phased to align with risk windows rather than historical averages. This allows organizations to achieve higher service levels while reducing overall inventory investment. Strategic stock is positioned where risk exposure is highest, transforming inventory from a passive cost centre into an active shock absorber that stabilizes the supply chain during disruptions.

 



Scenario planning has long been recognized as essential for resilience, yet traditional approaches are slow, manual, and constrained by human cognitive limits. AI enables autonomous scenario planning by running thousands of simulations in minutes, evaluating the impact of events such as port closures, supplier lead time shocks, or regional demand spikes. Each scenario is assessed across financial, service, and operational dimensions, providing decision-makers with quantified trade-offs rather than subjective judgments. This capability dramatically accelerates decision-making speed, often by an order of magnitude, and allows leaders to select the best possible response rather than relying on intuition or incomplete information during crises.

Sourcing strategies also evolve under AI-driven resilience models. Supplier selection is no longer a periodic, contract-driven exercise but a continuous optimization process. AI recalculates supplier scores in real time based on cost competitiveness, risk exposure, ESG compliance, and capacity availability. When risk levels change, AI proactively recommends alternate suppliers or sourcing strategies, enabling rapid switching and reducing dependency on single sources. This dynamic re-sourcing capability ensures that supply networks remain flexible and responsive as conditions change, rather than locked into static supplier relationships that may no longer be viable.

The concept of the supply chain control tower is similarly redefined. Traditional control towers focus on visibility and alerts, requiring human intervention to decide and act. AI-driven control towers move beyond dashboards to become action-oriented systems. They not only identify issues but also recommend or autonomously execute responses such as rerouting shipments, expediting critical SKUs, or reallocating inventory across regions. This closed-loop execution model significantly reduces human latency during disruptions, ensuring faster, more consistent responses at scale.

Generative AI adds a further layer of capability by transforming how decision-makers interact with supply chain systems. Through natural language interfaces, leaders can ask complex questions such as “What happens if exports from a specific country stop for 30 days?” and receive scenario-based insights instantly. Generative AI also enables the automatic creation of mitigation playbooks based on historical responses and institutional knowledge. AI agents can be configured to execute predefined recovery actions autonomously, embedding organizational experience directly into operational systems. This reduces reliance on tribal knowledge, accelerates onboarding of new leaders, and ensures consistent responses even under extreme stress.

Taken together, these capabilities represent a fundamental shift in supply chain operating models. AI-driven resilience moves organizations from reactive firefighting to predictive and autonomous networks. Supply chains become adaptive systems that sense early, plan probabilistically, optimize dynamically, and respond autonomously. In an era where volatility is the norm rather than the exception, AI does not merely protect supply chains from disruption—it enables organizations to convert uncertainty into a sustained competitive advantage.

One case study that I want to highlight here is the electronic component shortage that occurred just after Covid that pushed supply chains to be take steps to leverage data to be more prepared. Also, the middle crisis has now dealt a big blow to industries heavily dependent on oil or LPG to keep the manufacturing facilities up and running. This is where companies need to look at alternate sources of fuel supply like Solar and Electric powered batteries for such situations. AI plays a critical role in ensuring organizations can build resilient supply chains for the future and stay ahead of the curve.

AI Agents will play a critical role in driving supply chain resilience. Organization can leverage these Agents in their Supply chain system landscape to help drive resilience.

Disruption Sensing & Early Warning Agents

  • These agents continuously monitor internal and external signals—such as supplier performance, logistics movements, weather, and geopolitical events—to detect weak signals of disruption early. They identify anomalies before operational impact occurs, extending the response window from reactive to proactive.

Multi‑Tier Supply Risk Intelligence Agents

  • These agents map and monitor Tier‑2 and Tier‑3 supplier dependencies to uncover hidden concentration and cascading risks. They provide continuous visibility into upstream vulnerabilities that traditional Tier‑1–focused models fail to detect.

Probabilistic Planning & Forecast Confidence Agents

  • These agents replace single‑point forecasts with probabilistic demand and supply ranges, highlighting forecast confidence and volatility. They help planners manage uncertainty by evaluating plans across multiple future scenarios rather than optimizing for one assumed outcome.

Dynamic Inventory Rebalancing Agents

  • These agents continuously adjust inventory buffers based on real‑time demand signals, supply risk, and service impact. Inventory is repositioned dynamically to act as a shock absorber during disruptions, rather than relying on static safety stock rules.

Autonomous Scenario Simulation Agents

  • These agents run thousands of disruption scenarios—such as port closures, supplier failures, or demand spikes—in minutes. They quantify cost, service, and operational trade‑offs, enabling faster, data‑driven decisions during crises.

Autonomous Sourcing & Supplier Switching Agents

  • These agents continuously evaluate supplier risk, capacity, cost, and compliance and proactively recommend or initiate alternate sourcing. They reduce dependency on single suppliers and enable rapid re‑sourcing when risk thresholds are breached.

AI‑Driven Control Tower Execution Agents

  • These agents move control towers from visibility to execution by automatically triggering corrective actions such as rerouting shipments, reallocating inventory, or reprioritizing orders. They reduce human latency and ensure consistent response at scale.

Generative AI Decision Companion Agents

  • These agents provide natural‑language interaction with supply chain systems, answering complex “what‑if” questions and summarizing impact and mitigation options. They capture institutional knowledge and standardize decision‑making under stress.

Bounded Autonomy & Governance Agents

  • These agents enforce business rules, risk thresholds, and escalation policies to ensure AI actions remain controlled and auditable. They enable safe autonomy by clearly separating low‑risk automated decisions from high‑impact human‑in‑the‑loop decisions.

In summary:

AI improves supply chain resilience by shifting organizations from reactive planning to predictive, scenario‑based and autonomous decision‑making. By sensing disruptions early, quantifying uncertainty, optimizing buffers dynamically, and recommending actions in real time, AI enables faster recovery, higher service levels, and structurally more adaptive supply chains—without excessive cost.


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